Forecast Revenue and earnings outcome Using Event-Driven Score

Forecast Revenue and earnings outcome Using Event-Driven Score

One major use case of events direction using NLP and big-data is the prediction of quarterly financial performance which reflects the company’s operational activities. In this case study, we tested the 2Q 2018 financial announcements using event-driven score aggregation to predict companies’ 2Q financial performance. To do so, we generated an event-driven score for companies using 04.01-06.30.18 (2Q) period as well as 01.01-06.01.18 (H1). The scoring will contain an average of all the events (each event has its own scoring which reflects the potential impact of the event on the company operation) that took place during these periods.

We aim to test the predictive power of 6-month (H1) event-driven score VS 3-month (2Q) event-driven score of companies which presents revenue or earnings growth in Q2 2018. We took 386 companies which reported positive financial outcomes for the period APR-JUN 2018 and evaluate the 01.01-30.06.18 event-driven score VS 04.01-06-30.18 event-driven score to see if the 6-month period predict more accurate if these companies will have a growth in their revenue or earnings VS 3-month period.

Among these companies that present revenue or earnings growth, we found events such increase in sales, new orders, new products releases, new JV and M&A activities, increase in demand, new pricing models, entering new markets and positive ESG events during the past quarter.

The following table contains a list of companies that reported revenue and or earnings growth for the APR-JUN period. We use 2 types of event-driven score, first is the 6-month period using an aggregation of all events during the 01.01-06.30.18 VS event-driven score for the period 04.01-06.30.18 period. When using a longer period, the model uses more events to calculate the event-driven score, we assume that more events will lead to higher accuracy.

It is critical to distinguish between events pricing decay and operational decay. The impact of events on the share price is decay over time as the current price should reflect all the data which is available, however, the impact on the company operational activity remain for a longer period which will impact the company’s financial performance. Therefore, adding more events into the model should provide more accurately to predict the company’s operational activities which will be reflected in their financial outcomes.

EntitySymbolEvent-driven score 2018 01.01-06.30.18 scoreEvent-driven score 2018 04.01-06.30.18 score2018 H1 data forcast revenue and earnings growth (1=Yes, 0=No)2018 Q2 data forcast revenue and earnings growth (1=Yes, 0=No)
3D SystemsDDD0.750.7011
AARAIR0.700.6011
AbbottABT0.740.7611
Abercrombie & FitchANF0.760.7311
ABM IndustriesABM0.530.3010
AccentureACN0.760.7511
Acuity BrandsAYI0.600.5010
AcxiomACXM0.650.6511
AdobeADBE0.700.6911
Advance Auto PartsAAP0.800.8011
AECOMACM0.790.7911
AetnaAET0.770.8011
Agilent TechnologiesA0.650.8011
Air LeaseAL0.530.4010
AlbemarleALB0.770.7011
AlcoaAA0.680.8011
AlibabaBABA0.730.7211
AllstateALL0.730.7511
AltriaMO0.600.8011
AmazonAMZN0.710.7211
AmbarellaAMBA0.680.6311
AMC NetworksAMCX0.630.8011
AmedisysAMED0.730.7311
American EagleAEO0.780.7811
American Outdoor BrandsAOBC0.800.8011
American TowerAMT0.800.8011
American Water WorksAWK0.800.8011
Ameriprise FinancialAMP0.800.8011
AmerisourceBergenABC0.850.9011
AmgenAMGN0.740.7911
AmphenolAPH0.800.8011
AndeavorANDV0.530.4310
AnthemANTM0.800.8111
AO SmithAOS0.800.8011
ApacheAPA0.600.5010
ApolloAINV0.630.6211
AppleAAPL0.670.6711
Applied MaterialsAMAT0.800.8011
Arch CapitalACGL0.470.6001
Ascena RetailASNA0.350.3500
AssurantAIZ0.800.8011
AstraZenecaAZN0.680.6411
AT&TT0.730.7411
AtlassianTEAM0.220.2500
AutodeskADSK0.800.8011
Automatic Data ProcessingADP0.600.6011
AutoZoneAZO0.590.6311
Badger MeterBMI0.200.2000
BaiduBIDU0.650.6311
Baker HughesBHGE0.720.8511
Bank of AmericaBAC0.670.7711
Bank of MontrealBMO0.770.8311
BeldenBDC0.900.9011
Best Buy CoBBY0.800.8011
BiogenBIIB0.700.7211
BioScripBIOS0.200.2000
Black HillsBKH0.600.6011
BlackbaudBLKB0.700.7011
BlackBerryBB0.650.6311
BlackRockBLK0.660.7811
BlackstoneBX0.750.7611
BlucoraBCOR0.500.8001
BoeingBA0.750.7511
BofI HoldingBOFI0.800.8011
Boot BarnBOOT0.580.6311
Boston ScientificBSX0.720.8011
Bristol-MyersBMY0.740.8211
BroadcomAVGO0.800.7911
BrookfieldBAM0.750.7611
Burlington StoresBURL0.870.8711
Cadence Design SystemsIT0.700.7011
CampbellCPB0.590.5911
Canadian Natural ResourcesCNQ0.900.9011
Cantel MedicalCMD0.500.4300
CarlisleCSL0.700.7011
CarnivalCCL0.510.4500
CaterpillarCAT0.700.7311
CelaneseCE0.750.7511
CelgeneCELG0.700.7511
CentaminCEY.L0.450.4500
CenterPoint EnergyCNP0.800.8011
CenturyLinkCTL0.630.5511
CharterCHTR0.720.7111
CheggCHGG0.700.7011
ChemoursCC0.480.4800
ChipotleCMG0.570.5811
CienaCIEN0.570.5110
CIRCORCIR0.400.4000
Cirrus LogicCRUS0.220.2200
CiscoCSCO0.700.7111
CIT GroupCIT0.200.2000
CitigroupC0.660.7811
Citizens FinancialCFG0.750.7511
ClouderaCLDR0.450.4500
Coca-ColaKO0.660.7511
CognexCGNX0.750.8011
Cognizant TechnologyCTSH0.250.3000
ComcastCMCSA0.770.7911
Commerce BancsCBSH0.800.8011
CONMEDCNMD0.800.8011
ConocoPhillipsCOP0.800.8511
Container StoreTCS0.600.5511
Control4CTRL0.800.8011
Cooper TireCTB0.220.2300
CorningGLW0.550.3310
Coupa SoftwareCOUP0.650.6511
CraneCR0.780.7811
Credit SuisseCS0.510.7501
CrocsCROX0.620.6211
CVR PartnersUAN0.200.2000
CVS HealthCVS0.680.7111
DanaherDHR0.850.9011
Darden RestaurantsDRI0.600.6011
DeereDE0.630.5911
Delta Air LinesDAL0.800.8011
Denbury ResourcesDNR0.800.8011
Deutsche BankDB0.530.5311
Diamond Offshore DrillingDO0.800.8011
DISH NetworkDISH0.230.2500
Dollar GeneralDG0.450.3900
Dominion EnergyD0.760.7511
DowDuPontDWDP0.590.8511
DropboxDBX0.820.8211
DuluthDLTH0.780.8011
E*TRADEETFC0.800.8011
EatonETN0.730.7011
Electronic ArtsEA0.600.7311
Eli LillyLLY0.730.7711
Emerson ElectricEMR0.900.9011
EnbridgeENB0.700.8211
EncanaECA0.570.8011
EnergenEGN0.780.7511
EOG ResourcesEOG0.550.8011
EPR PropertiesEPR0.800.8011
Equity ResidentialEQR0.700.7011
EvercoreEVR0.700.6011
ExelixisEXEL0.780.7711
ExpediaEXPE0.590.8011
ExpressEXPR0.780.7811
Express ScriptsESRX0.700.6611
FacebookFB0.650.6911
FinisarFNSR0.230.2500
FireEyeFEYE0.830.8311
First DataFDC0.770.7711
First Mid-Illinois BancsFMBH0.400.4000
FiservFISV0.770.7711
FitbitFIT0.640.7711
FLIR SystemsFLIR0.800.8011
FortinetFTNT0.620.7711
Genco ShippingGNK0.400.4000
General DynamicsGD0.740.8011
General ElectricGE0.530.7111
General MotorsGM0.610.6711
GenescoGCO0.840.8311
Genuine PartsGPC0.650.5010
G-III ApparelGIII0.880.8811
Gildan ActivewearGIL0.200.2000
GlencoreGLEN.L0.690.6411
Global PaymentsGPN0.830.8311
Goldman SachsGS0.580.6211
GoogleGOOGL0.740.7411
GraingerGRI.L0.800.8011
GrubHubGRUB0.560.4310
H&R BlockHRB0.510.5100
Hain CelestialHAIN0.230.2300
HasbroHAS0.600.5611
HawaiianHA0.850.8011
Healthcare ServicesHCSG0.800.8011
HealthEquityHQY0.600.6011
Henry ScheinHSIC0.780.7811
Herman MillerMLHR0.100.1000
HertzHTZ0.460.5301
Hewlett PackardHPE0.680.7511
HologicHOLX0.780.7811
Home DepotHD0.490.4100
HoneywellHON0.700.8011
Hormel FoodsHRL0.340.2100
HP IncHPQ0.790.7811
HumanaHUM0.690.7511
ICU MedicalICUI0.800.8011
IDACORPIDA0.370.5000
IHS MarkitINFO0.680.6511
IlluminaILMN0.800.8011
ImpinjPI0.500.8001
IntelINTC0.720.7511
Intercontinental BrokersICE0.800.8011
International PaperIP0.800.8011
IntuitINTU0.780.7711
Intuitive SurgicalISRG0.630.8011
IQVIAIQV0.400.4000
iRobotIRBT0.900.9011
Itron IncITRI0.800.8011
j2 GlobalJCOM0.800.8011
JabilJBL0.650.6511
Jacobs EngineeringJEC0.830.8311
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ0.650.7211
Johnson ControlsJCI0.770.7911
JP MorganJPM0.720.7211
KadantKAI0.800.8011
Kansas City SouthernKSU0.490.2000
KB HomeKBH0.780.7711
KelloggK0.770.7711
KennametalKMT0.200.2000
Kimberly-ClarkKMB0.530.8011
Kinder MorganKMI0.800.8011
KLA-TencorKLAC0.750.8011
Kohl'sKSS0.570.8011
Kraft HeinzKHC0.660.6411
KrogerKR0.700.7111
L BrandsLB0.530.3510
Largo ResourcesLGO.TO0.400.4000
LendingClubLC0.350.3900
Lenovo0992.HK0.450.6801
LindsayLNN0.800.8011
Lions GateLGFB0.800.8011
Loblaw CompaniesL.TO0.200.2000
Lowe'sLOW0.200.2000
LululemonLULU0.710.6911
M&T BankMTB0.460.2000
MacquarieMIC0.640.5010
Marathon PetroleumMPC0.690.6811
MastercardMA0.700.7111
Match GroupMTCH0.560.6311
MaxLinearMXL0.100.1000
McCormickMKC0.790.7911
McDonald'sMCD0.700.6411
McKessonMCK0.620.5210
MedtronicMDT0.760.7711
MerckMRK0.680.6711
Mercury SystemsMRCY0.430.2500
Meridian BioscienceVIVO0.900.9011
MethanexMEOH0.500.2000
MetLifeMET0.500.5000
MGIC InvestmentMTG0.300.3000
Micron TechnologyMU0.540.4810
MicrosoftMSFT0.730.7411
MiddlebyMIDD0.600.5711
Molson CoorsTPX-B.TO0.630.6311
MondiMNDI.L0.800.8011
Morgan StanleyMS0.530.4810
MosaicMOS0.830.8511
Murphy OilMUR0.200.2000
Myriad GeneticsMYGN0.730.7111
National Bank of CanadaNA.TO0.800.8011
National BeverageFIZZ0.250.2500
National Retail PropertiesNNN0.800.8011
NavientNAVI0.200.2000
NCI Building SystemsNCS0.800.8011
NeenahNP0.800.8011
NetAppNTAP0.600.8011
NetflixNFLX0.690.6911
Newell BrandsNWL0.530.5311
NextEra EnergyNEE0.800.8011
NikeNKE0.710.7111
NordstromJWN0.480.4500
Northern TrustNTRS0.700.6011
Northrop GrummanNOC0.820.8311
Norwegian Cruise LineNCLH0.800.8011
NucorNUE0.800.8011
NutanixNTNX0.510.3600
NutrienNTR0.700.9011
NVIDIANVDA0.680.6811
Office DepotODP0.780.8511
OracleORCL0.590.5911
OshkoshOSK0.500.2000
PACCARPCAR0.800.8011
Palo Alto NetworksPANW0.760.7211
Pattern EnergyPEGI0.730.7511
PayPalPYPL0.740.7611
PepsiCoPEP0.750.7511
PerkinElmerPKI0.790.8111
PerrigoPRGO0.600.2010
PfizerPFE0.740.7611
Phillips 66PSX0.770.9011
PPL CorporationPPL0.540.5411
PraxairPX0.700.6811
PresidioPSDO0.670.7011
PrimericaPRI0.200.2000
ProAssurancePRA0.200.2000
Procter & GamblePG0.850.8511
Progress SoftwarePRGS0.800.8011
ProLogisPLD0.900.9011
ProofpointPFPT0.740.7511
Prospect CapitalPSEC0.400.4000
Quaker ChemicalKWR0.800.8011
QualcommQCOM0.620.7011
Quality SystemsQSII0.800.8011
QualysQLYS0.750.7311
Quanex Building ProductsNX0.800.8011
Quanta ServicesPWR0.780.8011
Ralph LaurenRL0.690.7811
RaytheonRTN0.730.7111
Red HatRHT0.570.4810
Regeneron PharmaceuticalsREGN0.800.8011
Renewable EnergyREGI0.750.6011
RenishawRSW.L0.450.6001
Rent-A-CenterRCII0.700.7211
ResMedRMD0.770.7711
Rite AidRAD0.570.4210
Rockwell AutomationROK0.570.5010
Royal CaribbeanRCL0.760.7511
SabreSABR0.570.6411
SalesforceCRM0.810.8211
Santander ConsumerSC0.750.7511
Sealed AirSEE0.200.2000
Sempra EnergySRE0.610.2010
SemtechSMTC0.800.8011
Shake ShackSHAK0.630.7711
ShopifySHOP0.620.5311
ShutterflySFLY0.800.8011
Simon PropertySPG0.600.6011
Sky plcSKY.L0.800.8011
SnapchatSNAP0.490.5401
Snap-OnSNA0.700.7011
SonicSONC0.600.6711
SonocoSON0.800.8011
SonySNE0.670.6711
South Jersey IndustriesSJI0.400.4000
Southern CompanySO0.630.5511
Southwest AirlinesLUV0.520.4500
Southwestern EnergySWN0.800.8011
Spectrum BrandsSPB0.620.2510
SplunkSPLK0.730.7311
SquareSQ0.690.6611
Stamps.comSTMP0.800.8011
Stanley BlackSWK0.630.5511
StarbucksSBUX0.430.4000
SurmodicsSRDX0.850.8711
SynapticsSYNA0.690.7611
Synchrony FinancialSYF0.750.7511
SyscoSYY0.800.8011
Tableau SoftwareDATA0.660.7511
TD AmeritradeAMTD0.570.5711
TE ConnectivityTEL0.600.8011
Tech DataTECD0.750.7511
TelefonicaTEF0.670.7911
Tenet HealthcareTHC0.900.9011
TeradyneTER0.570.7511
TerexTEX0.630.9011
TeslaTSLA0.570.6011
Texas InstrumentsTXN0.570.6211
TextronTXT0.510.8001
Thermo FisherTMO0.780.9011
TiffanyTIF0.690.7311
TimkenTKR0.550.9011
Titan MachineryTITN0.300.3000
T-MobileTMUS0.760.7611
Toll BrothersTOL0.640.4810
Trade DeskTTD0.820.8311
TritonTRTN0.750.7511
Twenty-First Century FoxFOX0.790.7811
TwilioTWLO0.700.6511
TwitterTWTR0.610.6511
Tyson FoodsTSN0.590.5210
Ulta BeautyULTA0.650.8011
Under ArmourUAA0.550.6211
Union PacificUNP0.850.8511
United ContinentalUAL0.600.7511
United RentalsURI0.770.7711
UnitedHealthUNH0.800.8011
Unum GroupUNM0.230.2300
Urban OutfittersURBN0.800.8011
US BancorpUSB0.800.8011
Vail ResortsMTN0.730.7311
Valero EnergyVLO0.700.7011
Vera BradleyVRA0.300.3000
Verint SystemsVRNT0.770.7711
VeritoneVERI0.390.3900
VerizonVZ0.710.6811
Vertex PharmaceuticalsVRTX0.670.6711
ViacomVIA0.730.7611
ViaSatVSAT0.800.8011
VisaV0.750.7411
VishayVSH0.500.8001
WalmartWMT0.680.7111
WeatherfordWFT0.540.8511
Weight WatchersWTW0.560.5311
Western DigitalWDC0.580.8011
WeyerhaeuserWY0.800.8011
WideOpenWestWOW0.800.8011
WiproWIT0.360.1800
WorkdayWDAY0.770.7611
WP CareyWPC0.730.7311
WPX EnergyWPX0.450.3300
ZillowZ0.640.6011
Zimmer BiometZBH0.790.7911

From the 386 companies that presented a positive financial outcome (presents revenue or earnings growth) for the 2Q 2018, 317 (82%) companies got an event-driven score above 0.52 using 6-months period VS 305 (79%) using 3-months period which indicate a bullish trend. (The event-driven score is scaled between 0-1 where bellow 0.48 points to a bearish event-driven score based on events during the filtered period, above 0.52 points to bullish event-driven score).

The data shows that longer selected period for generating an event-driven score impact the accuracy of the model. This can be explained by adding more events to the model which reflects the company’s operating activities.

To conclude, using events to predict a company’s performance, provide additional prediction power on top other analytic processes when evaluated new positions.


Using big data and NLP technologies to capture alpha by collecting, structure and reveal events from news articles, press releases, and financial social media presented on a visual analytics system

Our data is presenting on visually compelling, interactive dashboards on your PC and mobile or CSV file.

Using a hybrid model to provide high accuracy of data classification, context, and sources to ensure maximum value for our clients. Generating events scoring based on novelty, the position of the event, (header or news body), the event scoring index and the repetition of the event in the media.

Event Categories
In today’s rapidly changing environment it is essential to be able to track corporate events such as M&A, new deals, partnerships, ESG, regulatory decisions, management and stakeholders’ changes, expansions to new markets or product categories, new products, price changes, new agreements, FDA decisions, financial reports related events, macroeconomics and much more…

Comprehensive Sourcing
Cover press releases, news stories, and financial social media on companies, currencies, commodities, central banks, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics and ETFs 24/7.

Visual Analytics
Our data is presenting on easy to use interactive dashboards on the web or on your phone, get alerts when data changes, and drill into details. Alpha is at your fingertips.

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By | 2018-12-05T09:03:52+00:00 December 5th, 2018|case studies, Uncategorized, Use case|Comments Off on Forecast Revenue and earnings outcome Using Event-Driven Score